Ordinary Day

It seems like lately airlines and hotels have been sending me "Buy the points you need!" offers more frequently than usual. I figure that's an indicator of a slowing economy. They're not selling enough flights and room nights, so they're hawking points to make up the difference in revenue. Make no mistake: points are revenue. A major airline a few years ago (I think it was American) notoriously boasted to Wall St. that it made more money from selling points than operating flights. Who buys these points? The big buyers are actually banks. They buy the points they offer on all those credit card deals. Individuals like you and I can buy points, too.

I've always cautioned people to be careful with buying points because it's usually a ripoff. (It's not a ripoff for the credit card issuers; they buy points a billion at a time. The small-fries deals offered to individuals like you and I are the iffy ones.) Let's take a look at one of these offers and see if/how it makes sense to buy.

The email I received today advertises this:



Clicking through the offer I found that the best points rate starts with a purchase of at least 26,000 points. They're a penny apiece, $260. With the 100% bonus the cost drops to 0.5 cpp (cents per point). I can buy up to 600k points (300k + 300k) at that rate, for $3,000.

To understand how good (or bad) of a deal this is you have to know what the points are worth. Remember, just because something's on sale for half off doesn't mean it's actually a bargain. The price may have been marked up more than double to start. In fact it usually is.

Lately I've valued IHG points at 0.6 cpp. That valuation comes from my observation of what the points rates are vs. normal cash rates when I've checked prices on IHG hotels various times over the past year-plus. BTW, IHG hotels is the brand family that includes brands like Holiday Inn and Holiday Inn Express. Those are among our go-to brands for ordinary stays.

So this would seem to be a good deal, right? Buy points that are worth 0.6cpp at a cost of just 0.5cpp. Ah, but the fact they're selling points this cheaply— and have been on multiple occasions over the past year— is a leading indicator that IHG points are being devalued again.

Yes, points devaluation is a thing that happens regularly. Rival hotel chain Hilton devalued their points three times in the past 18 months. Hyatt did a big devaluation a few days ago. Whenever a company starts selling points at a new, lower rate it's a strong indication that another devaluation is coming. Indeed, already it's been getting harder to get 0.6cpp value on points stays at IHG. Half the time the value has been lower, like 0.55cpp or 0.5.

What this all tells me is that rather than buy new points right now, I need to hurry up and spend my existing points before they lose value again. Thankfully that's exactly what I have been doing. We stayed 6 nights on IHG points in Ohio last month and I've already booked another 5 nights with IHG points on a trip we've planning for August.